15 May, 2026.
​The two Presidents are all warm and goodwill in the moment. Which really is good to see. Trump said both want the Strait open, but that is a given really.
This, as Iran is allowing some ships of its choosing through, including a significant Chinese oil tanker. The US blockade did nothing. Though there have been some continued interceptions by both side.
It is looking like Trump will return to Washington hoping even more to get a deal with Iran to open the Strait. This does not mean the process will be successful without letting go of the US nuclear requirements. A face saving solution is required for the US. Perhaps China could monitor the Iran nuclear program?​​
15 May, 2026.
Japan Producer Prices are on the rise again as higher oil prices gradually begin to work their way through various global supply lines and economies. I call it a powerful yet slow moving inflation tsunami.
15 May, 2026.
Crude Oil prices are remaining highly elevated, even within the recent range and threatening further significant gains. Remember oil traders are more plugged in than most of us, hearing from their sources what is really going on or building in the Iran war. It could still re-ignite and no investment portfolio should blindly ignore this possibility.
14 May, 2026.
Good morning,
​For the global economic outlook, via Iran and the Strait of Hormuz this is all that matters.
We would like for Trump to return to Washington all triumphant that he has secured good economic and business deals with China, while claiming to have talked China into helping reach a deal with Iran.
The reality may be a little different. A China that has no compelling reason at all, other than the general desire for peace and good business, to agree to anything it does not want. Which includes the continued sanctions and naval blockade of Iran. Which it will vehemently protest and stand fast on.
13 May 2026
US Inflation above, a disaster and will prompt inappropriate monetary policy response. Taking off again from well above pre-covid territory. I continue to argue rates on hold or being cut is the appropriate response.
GET RID OF THE BANK
RBA ECONOMICS FAIL
RATE CUTS NOT HIKES
The 'Reverse' Bank of Australia just failed economics 1.01, businesses and the people. Again.
It is a litany of incompetence and no idea central banking going back two decades. From being the only bank to raise rates in the GFC, to promising zero rates for years in covid, to hiking rates now?
Why? Will it stop the war?
A policy that has zero impact on the cause, and only adds pain and further inflation to the economy. Economics 1.01: Raise rates to cool an 'over-heating' economy that is generating inflation. This is an economy already on its knees.
Correct monetary policy is to cut rates to reduce the burden on the people and this will also reduce inflation by giving business greater room to absorb increased energy costs.
The RBA again confirms itself the most dangerous and incompetent actor in the Australian economy.
Policy Response: Remove Governor and Board. Appoint Governor from outside the bank. Create an independent of RBA monetary policy committee.
* The Australian Economy is about to have one of its worst recessions in history. Ever.
* The Australian stock market is every bit as diabolical as I said it would be.
* And the RBA is incompetent and intellectually lost by any objective measurement.
* While the government is fully focussed on increasing taxes as a means in its own delusions to add productivity.
All highly problematic.
When they say productivity, they mean putting more people to work in the public service.
The highest ratio of public servants of any nation on earth. Which, by the way, is now completely out of the control of the politicians anyway. Anyone notice the promises to reduce immigration to a sustainable level, while the public service keeps issuing visas as fast as it can? Out of control public servants who openly consider themselves superior to all. While cuddling up with global corporations for the big payout on leaving the service.
We are a country in trouble where the once independent media is now merely the marketing branch for those same global corporations. We are now the 'lost' country. Once the lucky, looked back on with nostalgia.
How to turn it around. There is a path, but it is painful and will now likely happen of its own accord. Severe recession/depression, radical new government elected, I think One Nation may win power with the Nationals, with a savage cleaning out of government spending. Otherwise, even a return of full fuel supplies, some 3-9 months away, will not save us.
As for fuel, when have we seen a Minister so excited about achieving so little? It took over a month to secure another 400 million barrels of diesel. That is just four days supply???? Big fanfare. Dire economic outlook.
Long term bearish Australian equities. Long term bullish the Australian dollar, but there is an immediate risk window evolving around deep recession.
Clifford
Bloomberg News, New York.
"world's most accurate currency forecaster"
Survey of 72 investment banks and think tanks.
International Guest Speaker
Wall Street Journal, FT, China News Daily.
CNBC Dubai
26 February, 2026.
Discussing Asian markets across Monetary Policy, Bond Yield directions, FX and the major Stock market trends.
Join Our Mailing List.
not that you asked but my view of health fitness happiness its not rocket science get up early go to bed early in between eat well exercise as maximum as possible take the stairs always you get the idea and eat as few cooked meals as possible plenty of fruit veggies and more are just a handful away sleep good sleep is essential and last but not least well two things firstly some effort to make everyone you come into contact with every day a little better happier smiling even for the encounter no excuses on that now the last have a mission to make the world your community your bubble of influence however small or large a little stronger and more pure each day remember you are a spiritual person here to be curious discover and make the world a little better for everyone