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US500 IndexThis is a market that broke out of a three month consolidation phase to new all time record highs stronger than a Starship. The catalyst was the expectation that the war was over and oil prices would drop. It has not really worked out that way. As I keep saying, there is still risk of an even bigger war as the US uses this time to increase its ground troops and re-ammunition. Yes, the running out of missiles, particularly air defense is a very real thing. Despite what Trump has said, even the military has said they are desperately short. The equity market is strong primarily for reasons of AI mania and excess liquidity coming from the increasing indebtedness of the USA. Right now, equities are again floating unsure of which way to go. While everyone is blindly bullish, and recent momentum supports their view, I would suggest do not look away just yet, as a sharp downward reversal would be signalled by a break below the low of the past three days. Something to watch crucially at the moment.
10 August 2026
President Trump just said "the War will be over soon", but that is quite a sticking point that the deal to open the Strait of Hormuz does not include Israel or US ships. As I have been saying, the US is not a part of the agreement between Iran and Oman, and there are still risks. Risks that markets are not at all pricing. Just something to keep in mind, in your back pocket so to speak.
7 August 2026
US Services PMI 54.2 in July, but sadly stalling at not too great levels. A more typical number for this series in a strong, growing, healthy economy, is in the range of 58 to 62. Certainly stronger than a year ago, but be careful not to be too excited about the state of the broad US economy. As opposed to tech and Wall Street euphoria. Which we are cautious of as above.
6 August 2026
It is not exactly a pleasure to say, I think the war goes on, and oil will rise dramatically yet again. Tehran is saying there are no talks and US naval vessels will soon be targeted if the US continues to blockade. Still, there must be some hope, but probability suggests simply delay tactics by the US to muster the munitions for a ground invasion.
4 August 2026
US Consumer Sentiment, University of Michigan Survey was 55.1 in July. Which may be a five month high, but normal in a healthy US economy is 95? It is good to see some stability in the Index and even signs of some improvement, but the US has a long way to go.
31 July 2026
Australian manufacturing continues to consolidate. The SP Global PMI Index coming in at 52.0. This is an encouraging number and suggests a stronger outlook than may otherwise have been hoped for.
31 July 2026
We have been warning for some time that the aggregate data, due to the expanded wealth gap, is disguising a quite weak economy for most Americans. This data shows a significant slowing. Making its way up the food ladder just a little. Imports for data centres will be a long term plus.
31 July 2026
With a greater war would come higher inflation. The Fed and RBA alike should NOT respond to this inflation with higher rates. The correct monetary response is to reduce rates to offset the pain of higher energy prices and thus keep inflation lower than it would otherwise be.
30 July 2026
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