Reality Check RBA, 'Reverse' Bank of Australia, from an international perspective,
Friday, 9 October, 2026.
Tankers are striking mines and exploding, war again after mid-terms,
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Good morning,
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Keeping it short today and wishing you well for the weekend.
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The truth about US losses in the war is gradually surfacing, with 81 military aircraft lost or damaged so far in this war. As per the latest Congressional Report. We know at least 1,000 US troops, marines, and sailors have been wounded. Even more sadly, 19 dead. All this with little achieved.
In fact there is a strong argument Iran is in a better position now than before the war. US bases across the region destroyed. Aircraft carrier groups pushed back to a range of 800 miles for safety. The Strait if Hormuz a cinder box.
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These losses are a factor in why President Trump will go to war again after the Midterms. There is no other logic here than to get the maximum vote saying you are talking to Iran, then go to war with them again. The big goal is the wealth of the resources in Iran, and to regain now significantly lost influence in the region. I will say it again. I am not sure the US will win the next bigger war either.
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Oil prices remain under-pinned by the continued threat to all shipping through the Gulf that is not secretly paying a toll to Iran. The explosions in the Strait are thought to be tankers that hit mines. The cost of shipping is 10 times what it was, and supply cannot be assured post the Midterms when the US re-starts the war. Therefore, greater risk is being taken now to get tankers through the Strait beforehand.
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While languishing a bit, I do think Gold could be a good long term buy as long as it does not fall below 3970. Keep that level in mind strategically.
Stocks are looking very dicey indeed, Though Apple is firming nicely.
Australia just quite simply remains a worry.
Clifford
"world's most accurate currency forecaster"
Bloomberg News, New York.
Survey of 72 investment banks and think tanks.
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EY KPMG Macquarie NAB.
Tuesday, 6 October, 2026.
Australia, the steadily unfolding socio-economic disaster,
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Good morning,
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Some big comments today, changes, moderations in some views.
Firstly though. the latest Australia Consumer Index data from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute is totally damming of the Australia economy, its management and outlook.
Consumer Confidence is at near covid lockdown levels, and not for the first time since those fateful days. Pre-covid, back when the world was relatively normal, consumer confidence ran at about 105. Today's data has come in at 80. In fact, consumer confidence has only been at the previous normal or higher briefly during the 2021 post covid party boom.
Australians have been struggling. Hard working families and businesses, particularly small to medium sized ventures ever since covid really. GDP per capita has been going backward and the majority of the society has been under stress of a kind that is unwarranted. Extreme taxation to support one of the world's largest public service largesse experiments while crunching individuals and businesses with arduous compliance and regulatory work loads.
Where is the quality time for people to have healthy lives, being happy and playing with their children. Much of that time has now gone to pure government satisfaction activities.
Australia has been a test bed for social media companies for many years, and now it seems a weird kind of global experiment in just how much you can attack the society itself, with extreme taxation, regulation and immigration and other measures, to see how far a people can be pushed before there is a serious confrontation.
That day is now approaching fast. If not before, it will occur at this next federal election when One Nation sweeps to victory. Not because of their attributes, but solely because of the nature of both the major parties. Voters are crying out to get rid of them all. For both major parties have been to blame for where Australia has fallen. And there is also the added incentive to vote One Nation simply because of the complete lack of talent across both the ALP and Liberals.
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GLOBAL MARKETS VIEW
Oil flow out of the Middle East has suddenly surged to near pre-war levels. Due to pipelines being repaired and working to their maximum, and also recent tanker traffic levels bouncing firmly. Some of this is due to re-loading at sea operations. Time consuming and expensive, but working. And to rumours that many vessels have started paying a 10% levy, and higher, on all shipments to Iran. Iran's oil may not be getting out as much, though much is being trucked out, but it is earning an income on the rest of the Gulf's oil. This is at least what some insiders are saying.
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Oil prices are staying high, because of these added expenses and also because there is a rush now to get as much oil out as possible before the war resumes in a big way.
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For our trading of oil, I have been too stubborn in view, and have to recognise a resumption of the war after the midterms may simply seem to far away, too abstract, for most traders to fully respect and price, just yet. Certainly, the closer the midterms get, the quieter the comments on war resumption out of Washington will become. To go home on any day without a stop buy above the market would be foolish, but we are willing to go short should support here give way.
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Gold, a similar story to the above, but perhaps becoming the superior multi-year opportunity.
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Stocks, expect further separation of mainstream stocks from the more high flying AI and Tech sectors. Resources could be included, but will be volatile. The immediate upswing in AI and Tech could become more stable than has been the case through much of this year. We will remain ready to turn and sell on any big picture developments.
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Australian stocks have fallen a long way, but also face a quite challenging fundamental outlook. Rates are already too high, plus the added weight of never-ending inflation. For more on this please see yesterday's ausbiz TV interview. A bounce is due, but feel less enthusiastic than even in the US.
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Have a great day,
Clifford
International Guest Speaker
Wall Street Journal, FT, China News Daily.
