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It is not exactly a pleasure to say, I think the war goes on, and oil will rise dramatically yet again. Tehran is saying there are no talks and US naval vessels will soon be targeted if the US continues to blockade. Still, there must be some hope, but probability suggests simply delay tactics by the US to muster the munitions for a ground invasion.
4 August 2026
US500 This is now a serious attempt to break free of the several months of consolidation we have been in. This immediate price action needs to be respected. Driven on the day by some great AI results and lower Oil prices. Though the war can still deteriorate, Wall St wants to look away.
4 August 2026
President Trump has again delayed or cancelled another major escalation. US forces are withdrawing from Kuwait and Bahrain. The Gulf States are pressuring Washington to de-escalate. This is the second planned offensive cancelled. Iran seems to be re-gaining some footing on the diplomatic front with the Gulf States. The US is not winning this war and less and less in control. If the US is forced to a face saving agreement with Iran this would actually be a great thing for oil supply, for the world.
3 August 2026
US Consumer Sentiment, University of Michigan Survey was 55.1 in July. Which may be a five month high, but normal in a healthy US economy is 95? It is good to see some stability in the Index and even signs of some improvement, but the US has a long way to go.
31 July 2026
Australian manufacturing continues to consolidate. The SP Global PMI Index coming in at 52.0. This is an encouraging number and suggests a stronger outlook than may otherwise have been hoped for.
31 July 2026
NASDAQ Spectacular back from the brink. Very impressive reversal from recent selling. Still a small note of caution. The market remains in a wide consolidation phase, and this is so far despite its impressive nature, a one day event. Be encouraged, but not out of the risk zone.
31 July 2026
We have been warning for some time that the aggregate data, due to the expanded wealth gap, is disguising a quite weak economy for most Americans. This data shows a significant slowing. Making its way up the food ladder just a little. Imports for data centres will be a long term plus.
31 July 2026
Remaining firm on the back of US strength a little, but could the Australian market despite a recession be readying for a major bull market based on resource wealth, geographic safe-haven and easy access for US fund buying. Following on the back of US military base expansions in the country too. An upside break out of this three day range would be encouraging. A downside break would signal private sector recession fears dominate.
31 July 2026
With a greater war will come higher inflation. The Fed and RBA alike should NOT respond to this inflation with higher rates. The correct monetary response is to reduce rates to offset the pain of higher energy prices and thus keep inflation lower than it would otherwise be.
30 July 2026
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